Cavalese: which weather forecast is most accurate
Data come from the province of Trento (reference capital: Trento), combined with nearby provinces weighted by distance. Over the last two weeks, Apple Weather got it wrong least often in this area (57/100).
Yellow alert today for hydrogeological risk and flood risk
Source: Italian Civil Protection Department · 22 October
Most accurate in this area, last 2 weeks
Apple Weather
At the province level
Rain nearby, right now
The nearest rain core is less than 1 km north of the centre of Cavalese, with light intensity.
Observed data from the latest radar sweep (16:25) · Radar-DPC, Italian Civil Protection
Yesterday in Trento
Observed data for 21 OctoberThe reference provincial capital for Cavalese is Trento
How we calculate the score
Every day we compare the forecasts of 5 weather services with data measured in the provincial capitals. The score runs from 0 to 100 and covers the last 14 days: 75% is about forecasting rain and 25% about temperature. Cavalese is not a measuring point: the score combines data from 8 provinces, weighted by distance.
How much each province counts
For this town the score combines data from 8 provinces, weighted by geographic distance.
Provinces considered:
Weather service ranking for this area
- 1Apple Weather57/100No public website
- 2iLMeteo.it56/100
- 33BMeteo55/100
- 4Meteo Aeronautica Militare45/100
- 5Meteo.it44/100
Yesterday's report card
21 OctoberForecasts made the day before for Trento, compared with what actually happened
- Apple WeatherHighoffLowcloseRaincorrect
- Meteo.itHighoffLowoffRaincorrect
- 3BMeteoHighoffLowoffRaincorrect
- iLMeteo.itHighoffLowoffRaincorrect
- Meteo Aeronautica MilitareHighoffLowoffRaincorrect
Spot on = within 2 degrees · Close = within 4 degrees
Ongoing streaks
- 3BMeteo has called the rain right for 3 days in a row
The situation around Cavalese
A wet week around Trento, with frequent precipitation. Leading for the Cavalese area over the last 14 days is Apple Weather, although its lead over the runner-up is under 3 points. For rain forecasts alone, however, the most accurate service in the provincial capital is iLMeteo.it. Sustained wind for a good part of the week. In nearby municipalities (Tesero, Castello-Molina di Fiemme) the leading service does not change. Worth noting: yesterday the service ranked last overall was among the two most accurate on the provincial capital's report card. Rain makes up three quarters of the score and temperature one quarter: in a week this wet, rain is what makes the difference.
Updated on 22 October 2026
One year ago today
Rainiest day ever recorded: 42.2 mm (21 October 2026)
The previous record was 33.4 on 10 June 2026
Sun and moon today
3 fewer minutes of daylight than yesterday
Waxing gibbous, 86% illuminated
Map of Cavalese
Loading map…
Nearby towns
Localities in Cavalese
Get to know Cavalese
Over the last two months, next-day forecasts for the Trento area had an average accuracy index of 61 out of 100 (average across all services). It is among the hardest areas to forecast in Italy: ranked 100 of 107.
Average accuracy by how far ahead the forecast is made:
- For tomorrow61/100 · fairly reliable
- 2 days ahead61/100 · fairly reliable
- 5 days ahead56/100 · fairly reliable