Malvagna: which weather forecast is most accurate
Data come from the province of Messina (reference capital: Messina), combined with nearby provinces weighted by distance. Over the last two weeks, Meteo Aeronautica Militare got it wrong least often in this area (71/100).
Yellow alert today for thunderstorms and hydrogeological risk and flood risk
Source: Italian Civil Protection Department · 13 October
Most accurate in this area, last 2 weeks
Meteo Aeronautica Militare
At the province level
Rain nearby, right now
The nearest rain core is less than 1 km north of the centre of Malvagna, with light intensity.
Observed data from the latest radar sweep (11:20) · Radar-DPC, Italian Civil Protection
Yesterday in Messina
Observed data for 11 OctoberThe reference provincial capital for Malvagna is Messina
How we calculate the score
Every day we compare the forecasts of 5 weather services with data measured in the provincial capitals. The score runs from 0 to 100 and covers the last 14 days: 75% is about forecasting rain and 25% about temperature. Malvagna is not a measuring point: the score combines data from 8 provinces, weighted by distance.
How much each province counts
For this town the score combines data from 8 provinces, weighted by geographic distance.
Provinces considered:
Weather service ranking for this area
- 1Meteo Aeronautica Militare71/100
- 2Apple Weather71/100No public website
- 33BMeteo68/100
- 4Meteo.it60/100
- 5iLMeteo.it43/100
Yesterday's report card
11 OctoberForecasts made the day before for Messina, compared with what actually happened
- 3BMeteoHighspot onLowspot onRaincorrect
- Apple WeatherHighcloseLowspot onRaincorrect
- Meteo.itHighspot onLowspot onRaincorrect
- Meteo Aeronautica MilitareHighspot onLowcloseRaincorrect
- iLMeteo.itHighcloseLowspot onRainwrong
Spot on = within 2 degrees · Close = within 4 degrees
Ongoing streaks
- Meteo Aeronautica Militare has nailed the high for 28 days in a row
- 3BMeteo has nailed the high for 24 days in a row
- Meteo.it has nailed the high for 24 days in a row
The situation around Malvagna
Around Messina, precipitation was frequent over the past week. Meteo Aeronautica Militare tops the 14-day ranking for the Malvagna area, but by a minimal margin of under 3 points over the second-placed service. On rain alone, Apple Weather does better in the provincial capital's data; on temperatures, yet another service is the most accurate. A very windy week: sustained gusts on most days. Yesterday, in the check on the provincial capital, the week's No. 2 moved up to No. 1. In nearby municipalities (Moio Alcantara, Roccella Valdemone) the leading service does not change. In wet weeks like this one, rain forecasts matter most: they account for three quarters of the score.
Updated on 13 October 2026
Sun and moon today
2 fewer minutes of daylight than yesterday
Waxing crescent, 5% illuminated
Map of Malvagna
Loading map…
Nearby towns
Localities in Malvagna
Get to know Malvagna
Over the last two months, next-day forecasts for the Messina area had an average accuracy index of 69 out of 100 (average across all services). It is among the hardest areas to forecast in Italy: ranked 62 of 107.
Average accuracy by how far ahead the forecast is made:
- For tomorrow69/100 · fairly reliable
- 2 days ahead70/100 · fairly reliable
- 5 days ahead65/100 · fairly reliable