Carolei: which weather forecast is most accurate
Data come from the province of Cosenza (reference capital: Cosenza), combined with nearby provinces weighted by distance. Over the last two weeks, 3BMeteo got it wrong least often in this area (74/100).
Yellow alert today for thunderstorms and hydrogeological risk and flood risk
Source: Italian Civil Protection Department · 13 October
Most accurate in this area, last 2 weeks
3BMeteo
At the province level
Rain nearby, right now
The nearest rain core is less than 1 km north of the centre of Carolei, with light intensity.
Observed data from the latest radar sweep (09:50) · Radar-DPC, Italian Civil Protection
Yesterday in Cosenza
Observed data for 11 OctoberThe reference provincial capital for Carolei is Cosenza
How we calculate the score
Every day we compare the forecasts of 5 weather services with data measured in the provincial capitals. The score runs from 0 to 100 and covers the last 14 days: 75% is about forecasting rain and 25% about temperature. Carolei is not a measuring point: the score combines data from 8 provinces, weighted by distance.
How much each province counts
For this town the score combines data from 8 provinces, weighted by geographic distance.
Provinces considered:
Weather service ranking for this area
- 13BMeteo74/100
- 2Apple Weather72/100No public website
- 3Meteo Aeronautica Militare68/100
- 4iLMeteo.it58/100
- 5Meteo.it54/100
Yesterday's report card
11 OctoberForecasts made the day before for Cosenza, compared with what actually happened
- Meteo Aeronautica MilitareHighspot onLowspot onRaincorrect
- Meteo.itHighspot onLowcloseRaincorrect
- 3BMeteoHighspot onLowcloseRaincorrect
- iLMeteo.itHighspot onLowcloseRaincorrect
- Apple WeatherHighcloseLowcloseRaincorrect
Spot on = within 2 degrees · Close = within 4 degrees
Ongoing streaks
- Apple Weather has called the rain right for 4 days in a row
- Meteo Aeronautica Militare has called the rain right for 3 days in a row
- 3BMeteo has called the rain right for 3 days in a row
The situation around Carolei
A rainy week around Cosenza: rain fell on several of the last seven days. Over the last 14 days, 3BMeteo has the highest score for the Carolei area, but the runner-up is less than 3 points behind: the ranking can change from one day to the next. For temperatures, the most accurate service in the provincial capital is iLMeteo.it. Frequent windy days, with gusts that were strong at times. Yesterday's report card reshuffled the order: the week's No. 2 finished No. 1. Nearby municipalities (Dipignano, Mendicino) have the same service in first place. Worth noting: yesterday the service ranked last overall was among the two most accurate on the provincial capital's report card.
Updated on 13 October 2026
Sun and moon today
3 fewer minutes of daylight than yesterday
Waxing crescent, 5% illuminated
Map of Carolei
Loading map…
Nearby towns
Localities in Carolei
Get to know Carolei
Over the last two months, next-day forecasts for the Cosenza area had an average accuracy index of 56 out of 100 (average across all services). It is among the hardest areas to forecast in Italy: ranked 104 of 107.
Average accuracy by how far ahead the forecast is made:
- For tomorrow56/100 · fairly reliable
- 2 days ahead57/100 · fairly reliable
- 5 days ahead54/100 · fairly reliable