4 km North of Predappio
A very light earthquake, probably not felt by people. At this depth the shaking is felt, but rarely causes damage.
Where
4 km North of PredappioEarthquakes in the province of Forlì-CesenaEarthquakes in Emilia-RomagnaHow far away could it be felt?
A quake this small is usually not felt by people: only seismographs record it.
Statistical estimate from the Italian intensity attenuation model (INGV): actual perception depends on geology, buildings and depth. Very shallow events can be felt locally even below the threshold.
Earthquake map
20 eventsThe energy released
How much energy this quake unleashed, translated into everyday comparisons.
Each extra magnitude unit releases about 32 times more energy: an M5 is not "a bit stronger" than an M4 — it is a different league.
Energy estimated with the standard Gutenberg–Richter relation; an average lightning bolt ≈ 1 billion joules. Indicative values.
The race of the seismic waves
Two waves set off from the hypocentre: the faster P wave arrives first with a sharp jolt; the S wave carries the actual shaking.
Animation sped up ~2× compared to reality.
- Forlì12 km from the epicentrefirst tremor in ~4 smain shaking in ~6 s
- Faenza18 km from the epicentrefirst tremor in ~4 smain shaking in ~8 s
- Cesena22 km from the epicentrefirst tremor in ~5 smain shaking in ~8 s
- Ravenna34 km from the epicentrefirst tremor in ~6 smain shaking in ~11 s
Theoretical times with average crustal speeds: real values vary with geology. The gap between P and S waves is what earthquake early-warning systems rely on.
How deep it was born
At this depth the shaking is felt, but rarely causes damage.
deeper than the area average (~13 km)
For the same magnitude, a shallow earthquake is felt much more than a deep one: the energy starts closer to the surface.
What kind of quake is this?
In hindsight it was a foreshock: 94 months ago the same area had a stronger quake (M2.7). This can only be said after the fact — it was not predictable beforehand.
How often does it happen here?
Within 50 km of this epicentre, a magnitude ≥ 2 earthquake has occurred on average this often: 668 events in the last 12 years of the INGV catalogue.
An average computed on the recent past: it tells how used this area is to shaking, not when the next quake will come — earthquakes cannot be predicted.
The great earthquakes in this area's history
Almost a thousand years of catalogues: the strongest documented events within ~50 km.
Source: Parametric Catalogue of Italian Earthquakes CPTI15 (INGV, CC BY 4.0).
The closest seismic structure
The epicentre lies about 2 km from Castel San Pietro Terme-Meldola, one of the seismic structures mapped by INGV geologists.
Faults are mapped to build better and understand the territory: knowing them says nothing about when an earthquake will occur, which remains unpredictable. Source: DISS 3.3 (INGV, CC BY 4.0).
Other quakes in the area
Data: INGV — National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (CC-BY 4.0)
Estimates computed by Meteare on INGV data (Gutenberg–Richter relation; Italian macroseismic intensity attenuation model).